There is a lot of luck involved in the early stages of an outbreak. But if the R number is close to 1, case numbers could be slow to come down. But altogether, it means alert level 3 would likely not be enough to control an outbreak once it has become established.Īlert level 4 should be enough if we all play our part. These are all ballpark numbers and there are lots of assumptions and approximations involved. But that’s not enough to bring it below 1 at level 3. This will reduce the R number by perhaps 15-20% nationally. Luck will play its partĬurrently, about 18% of New Zealanders are fully vaccinated and another 14% have had their first dose. Unfortunately, this means it’s likely an alert level 3 lockdown would not be enough to contain a Delta outbreak. But doubling the R number is a reasonable first approximation. This doesn’t necessarily mean Delta doubles the R number – it depends on the types of contact and the restrictions that are in place. We know from data overseas that this variant is about twice as transmissible as the strain of COVID-19 we were dealing with in 2020. At the time this was great news - it meant that alert level 3 was enough to control outbreaks without the need for more restrictive rules.ĭelta changed all that. During Auckland’s alert level 3 lockdown last August, we estimated R was between 0.55 and 0.75. If it’s less than 1, the number of cases is on the way down.Īfter New Zealand went into alert level 4 in March 2020, our best estimate of the reproduction number was between 0.3 and 0.55. If the R number is bigger than 1, the outbreak is growing and case numbers will climb. We measure the spread of COVID-19 using the reproduction number (R number), which is the average number of people someone with the virus infects. Moving the whole country to Alert Level 4 is definitely the right move and will give us the best chance of nipping this outbreak in the bud before it can get too large. The government warned last week New Zealanders should expect a swift and sharp response if a case of the Delta variant was detected in the community, because it’s so infectious and can spread much more quickly. We won’t know for sure it is the Delta variant until genome sequencing results come back, but 100% of COVID-19 cases in MIQ facilities over the past few weeks have been Delta infections, and it’s a safe bet this community case is too. He travelled to the Coromandel for the weekend, and tracing is now underway to establish all close and casual contacts and the Ministry of Health has published locations of interest.ĭuring the lockdown, schools and businesses will remain closed, people will have to stay at home, except for supermarket shopping, exercise in the neighbourhood and necessary medical treatment or testing. The infected man was unvaccinated and is thought to have been infectious since Thursday. This is the first community case since February and it’s more than a year since the last country-wide lockdown. New Zealanders are back in their bubbles after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a three day alert level 4 lockdown for the entire country, and a seven day period for Auckland, following the confirmation of a community case - most likely infected with the Delta variant. She was even able to travel for holidays within Vietnam.After its first suspected Delta variant community case, New Zealand goes into short, sharp nationwide lockdown Ms Tú Anh said the city had enjoyed about six months of almost total freedom from late last year until April 2021. Tú Anh Lê, an insurance consultant, is working from home in Da Nang, a city in central Vietnam which is largely reliant on tourism.ĭa Nang was thrown into hard lockdown in July 2020 when it became the epicentre of Vietnam's second wave, but swift lockdowns and widespread testing brought the outbreak under control. Some residents unable to leave home, even for groceries The largest clusters have been detected in the city's industrial zones, where tens of thousands of workers operate in relatively confined spaces, Dr Pham said. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's largest city, has become the epicentre of the new wave, surpassing 100,000 cases several weeks ago. The Delta variant was first detected in Vietnam in late April, when the latest outbreak began, according to state media. ( Reuters: Thanh Hue)ĭelta is "much more infectious and dangerous than previous strains", Dr Pham said, which meant it had "rapidly spread within communities in high-density and confined spaces". The Delta variant has overwhelmed Vietnam's suppression strategy.
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